When Will the Recession Be Over?

This question has been at the forefront of our minds for a long time.  Analysts, speculators, and business people alike have been desperately trying to wrap their minds around the enormity of this problem for the past few years.  According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the United States has been in a recession since December of 2007.

Economic insight and analysts from the Wall Street Journal speculate that the American people will have to hold out until 2010 for the National Bureau of Economic Research to make an end-of-recession declaration.  In Washington last week, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, however; publicly declared that the recession was over.  He did qualify this statement by saying that there would not be a “splashy return to economic boomtime anytime soon.” 

Bernanke attributes the end of the recession to several factors as follows:  a rise in retail sales for the month of August, a rise in housing sales in key markets, and a rise in median home prices in Southern California markets, one of the hardest hit boom-to-bust areas in the country.  All of these factors combined serve as key economic indicators to market stabilization and recovery.  To read more about these factors visit Yahoo Real Estate News.

Unfortunately, unemployment is the wild card in this recession equation.  Even with the end of the recession drawing near, unemployment will not have a speedy recovery.  According to Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University economist and member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee, unemployment will peak sometime between December of 2009 and March of 2010.  Nevertheless, Bernanke says that the vast majority of Americans who are employed saw wage increases this year up to 5% marking the largest gain in fifty years. 

The experts are declaring that the recession is either over or coming to a close which is very good news for everybody.  This is certainly optimistic news for businesses both small and large who are anxiously awaiting the return of the market.  For local businesses like those located in the Sand Creek Business Center and the Sand Creek Plaza, this may stimulate expansion or growth plans for the coming years.  In which case, commercial building owners will be ready to meet this need with prime office and retail space. 

I would like to add a very important indicator showing that we are likely very near a recovery and that is the fact that the manufacturing index has seen three straight months of increases. This added with the fact that business inventories are down suggests that we should see those that are still employed reach full employment. Once that is met we will see reversal in unemployment claims so that those who still have jobs can feel comfortable with making large purchases. That will spark housing which will lead us out of the recession. How long that will take is anybodies guess though. I don't see it happening until next Spring.

Well Big Ben already said it was over so it obviously has to be. (Scarcism Intended)

I think it will end when the United States figures out a way to stem these forclosures and figures out a way to put people back to work.